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Boston College Football 2022: Best-Case, Worst-Case, Most-Likely-Case, And A Hail Mary

BC Football 2022: Best-Case, Worst-Case, Most-Likely-Case, And A Hail Mary

We take a look at the different paths this year's 2022 BC Football team could take.

There are mixed feelings and expectations for this upcoming 2022 season for Jeff Hafley & Co. When we reviewed the scenarios last year there was a lot of momentum and hype surrounding the BC Football program. But lets face it, the 2021 season was a disappointment, and BC Football Fans are anxious to see the football program gain back some of that lost momentum. We all understand that 2020 was a year full of distractions (Covid-19), and that 2021 was a season ended by a fluke-injury (Phil Jurkovec), but for 2022 there is absolutely no more room for excuses. It will be Jeff Hafley's third season as the head coach, and it seems that most fans agree, this needs to be a successful season.

Now, what would make this 2022 BC Football Season a successful one? As we take a look at the four scenarios below, notice that there are plenty of opportunities to make a statement this season, but the road to meeting expectations is much more difficult this year.

Last year 11 out of 12 regular season games were considered likely wins or toss-up games, while this year only 8 out of 12 games are considered likely wins or toss-up games, the other four games BC is expected to lose. It is clear that the 2022 schedule is going to be much more challenging than last year. If Boston College wants to meet expectations they need to take care of business and win every winnable game on their schedule.

It looks like there is no room for errors, excuses, or bad losses this year. If Coach Hafley wants to have a successful season in the eyes of BC Football Fans, not only does he have to be flawless, BC might need to pull off an upset or two.

Below are all the scenarios for the 2022 Boston College Football Season. The win probabilities shown are from the current 2022 ESPN Football Power Index.

2022 Schedule:

Week 1: RUTGERS - FAVORITE ~ 70%


Week 3: MAINE - WIN ~ 95%


Week 5: LOUISVILLE - TOSS UP ~ 43%

Week 6: CLEMSON - LOSS ~ 10%

Week 7: ***BYE***

Week 8: WAKE FOREST - TOSS UP ~ 21%

Week 9: UCONN - WIN ~ 88%

Week 10: DUKE - WIN ~ 79%

Week 11: NC STATE - UNDERDOG ~ 21%

Week 12: NOTRE DAME - LOSS ~ 9%

Week 13: SYRACUSE - TOSS UP ~ 58%

Worst Case: (5-7)

Not going bowling would be the worst case scenario, especially since BC has been bowl eligible the past 4 seasons and has only competed in one bowl game. If this happened, Jeff Hafley would officially be on the hot seat. Anything less than a winning season would be disastrous for Boston College, especially since the program and the ACC are fighting for relevancy, as conferences continue to shift and realign. The expectations are high, the strength of schedule is high, and unfortunately for Coach Hafley the sympathy of circumstances has run out, he must find a way to have a winning season this year.

To put this in better perspective for BC Football Fans, the worse case scenario is much more likely than previous years. It won't take a freak accident to make this scenario play out, all it takes is one bad loss and BC will be fighting for its life to become bowl eligible.

Most Likely: (7-5)

This scenario seems pretty likely (if Phil Jurkovec can stay healthy all season) and should be considered a successful season. Having a successful season means that Jeff Hafley was able to win almost all of the toss up games (3 out of 4) and take care of business. This would guarantee a winning season and give the Eagles the opportunity to play in a bowl and get to 8 wins for the first time since 2009. If you take an honest look at the 2022 schedule, BC Football Fans should consider a winning season a successful season, the 7-5 scenario seems to be the most realistic and achievable.

Give or Take a Game:

(6-6) Would absolutely not be considered a successful season. While this 6-6 "Steve Addazio Scenario" is actually the 2nd most likely scenario to happen, I don't need to explain to BC Football Fans how painful it would be for BC to have another 6-6 season.

(8-4) Would be considered a very successful season. It is amazing how much a single game can turn a season into a special one. Most people can't even remember the last time BC won 8 games in a single season (2009). This would be a significant step forward.

Best Case: 9-3

If everything goes right, this BC Football Team has the potential to be a Top 25 team by the end of the year. In order for this scenario to happen, Boston College would need to pull off an upset or two, which would likely cause some chaos in the ACC Atlantic division.

BC has a realistic shot at accomplishing this if the O-line is able to to do their job. When you look at the talent returning on defense and offense, the only obvious liability is the offensive line. If the O-line is able to find a way to protect Jurkovec and possibly even develop quicker than expected, then this could become a special season for the Eagles.

Another positive thing to note is that this defense has the potential to be great and keep every game within reach. BC had a Top 3 passing defense last year and was 28th overall in total defense. This defense has the ability to be one of the best in the country, especially if they continue to improve the defensive line and implement more of Hafley's scheme.

Hail Mary: 12-0

We call this scenario the "Hail Mary Scenario", because while the other scenarios are based in reality, this fantasy case scenario is obviously extremely unlikely, but it allows us to reflect on the current state of Boston College. If you are a true BC Football Fan you know that while there is very little hope for an actual National Championship run, anything is possible, and at Boston College, Hail Mary plays & National Championships (1940) are part of our BC culture.

For this scenario to work, the Eagles would most likely need to pull off multiple Top 25 wins including upsets over top ranked Clemson and Notre Dame. Again, while this might seem impossible, remember that BC has been within less than a touchdown of beating Clemson the previous two seasons on the road, and this year BC will be hosting the Tigers at home, in primetime, for the Red Bandana Game. And as far as Notre Dame goes, not only is it a matter of time before the Holy War history repeats itself (1993), this game at Notre Dame will be Phil Jurkovec's revenge game and his first return to South Bend after transferring to BC. Most people would agree that Boston College is due to beat a Top 25 team sooner rather than later, something that they have not done since 2014.

In a recent article with ESPN, Jeff Hafley was asked about the current depressed state of college football in the Northeast and his response was, "College football needs the Northeast."

"College football needs the Northeast" - Jeff Hafley

Right now there is an amazing opportunity for Boston College to be the program that fills the college football void in the Northeast. The only way this happens is by winning. BC needs to have a more than special season in order to regain national attention, and for the chance to be on par with the pro sports in Boston.

When Gerard Phelan caught Doug Flutie's Hail Mary pass for a touchdown in 1984, for a moment, Boston was a college football town. BC desperately needs another moment like this in order to reenergize and reform its standing in the college football world. There is an opportunity this 2022 season for BC to make a statement, and to reposition themselves favorably in the chaotic college football world of realignment.

College football needs Boston College.

For Boston, for Boston!

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Gabby Keogh
Gabby Keogh
23 thg 8, 2022


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